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Weekly Technical and Trade Outlook – USD/JPY

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USD/JPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Last updated at April 04, 2022 00:07GMT.

Daily trend chart

At the top

Daily indicators

Facilitate fm o/bot

21 HR EMA

122.52

55 HR EMA

122.35

Trend hourly chart

Short term

Time indicators

Neutral

13 HR RSI

57

IMD 2 p.m.

+ve

Daily analysis

Consolidation with a bullish bias.

Resistance

123.64 – 61.8% r of 125.10-121.29.
123.20 – Last Wednesday’s high.
123.03 – Last Friday’s high.

Support

122.22 – European highest in Last Thur (now sup).
121.75 – Last Friday’s Asian low.
121.29 – Last Thursday low.

USD/JPY – 122.64.. Although the dlr continued its recent winning streak and hit a near 7-year high of 125.10 on Monday, the price fell on the yen’s repair in late at 121.29 b4, rallying in tandem with US yields at 123.03 on Fri.

Overall dlr fall from 118.66 (Dec 2016) fm to 2019 low at 104.46 (Sept) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month low at 99.00 peaked . Although it fell to a 3.5 year low at 101.19 in March 2020 on risky trades due to the COVID-19 pandemic, dlr’s rally to 111.71 in the same month signals a correction completed. Despite dlr’s erratic fall to 102.60 (Jan 2021), subsequent rise to 116.65 in early July and then break of 2020 high at 112.22 to 116.34 in January signals long-term upside fm 2020 3 1/2 year low 101.19 remains in effect n last week’s gain to a nearly 7 year high of 125.10 could head towards 126.80/85 later this month. It is only below 120.00 that a temporary high is reached and risks a stronger retracement towards 119.39.

Today’s dlr rally to 121.29 on the BOJ unlimited bond buy trade at 123.03 on Friday post-NFP suggests that the pullback from 125.10 has ended as 122, 22/25 holds, a gain to 123.19 (50% r fm 125.10) is likely, bearish divergences’ on the hourly indicators would cap the price at 123.64. Below 122.00, 121.65/75.